The NASCAR playoffs saw yet another non-playoff driver find their way to Victory Lane as Ross Chastain took the win at Kansas Speedway last week. Now NASCAR heads to the chaotic banks of Talladega Superspeedway for what ought to be one of the wildest races of the season in the 2024 YellaWood 500.
As with any drafting-style circuit, teams hope to survive the inevitable carnage and claim victory in the end. Will a non-playoff driver claim the checkered flag once more or can a contender use this race to lock themselves into the next round?
Let’s start by diving into the playoff picture.
Playoff Picture Heading Into the 2024 YellaWood 500
- William Byron +34
- Ryan Blaney +28
- Christopher Bell +28
- Kyle Larson +18
- Denny Hamlin +11
- Alex Bowman +8
- Chase Elliott +4
- Joey Logano +4
- Tyler Reddick -4
- Daniel Suarez -14
- Chase Briscoe -25
- Austin Cindric -29
Of the drivers currently below the cutline, only regular season champion Tyler Reddick comes as a surprise. Normally I’d say Reddick should have no issue getting back above the cutline as one of the strongest cars all season but there’s a two step problem there.
First, Reddick’s luck has been horrendous the past few races and the speed hasn’t been quite what we expect out of the #45. Second, this is ‘Dega. Anything can happen. As of right now, I still think he claws back above the cutline given his skill at drafting tracks but disaster can strike at any moment.
Being an underdog just adds fuel to the fire. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/TrKWcby7d4
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 4, 2024
Of the drivers above the cutline, I still think Logano is most likely to fall out and join Suarez, Briscoe, and Cindric in elimination.
2024 YellaWood 500 Entry List
Both Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger will be getting behind the wheel for Kaulig Racing at Talladega this Sunday with SVG in the #16 and Dinger in the #13. Elsewhere in the field Anthony Alfredo will be behind the wheel of the #62 for Beard Motorsports, joining the other part-time entrants like JJ Yeley and BJ McLeod.
I can’t stress enough that the chaotic nature of Talladega Superspeedway means anyone can win coming to the line. While a Yeley or McLeod win may be unlikely, they have a better chance here than at any other track on the circuit besides perhaps Daytona.
It's just about @TALLADEGA time. ⌚️ pic.twitter.com/QxiG7ORVxb
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 4, 2024
Chaos will unfold on Sunday, it’s just a matter of when.
2024 YellaWood 500 Race Odds and Predictions
I do this every time we see a drafting style track on the schedule but go ahead and toss the odds out. None of it matters. It is near impossible to predict a winner for this race due to the nature of the beast. The only prediction is calamity.
For the uninitiated, why are tracks like Talladega and Daytona so hard to predict?
The nature of the racing here means that drivers are bunched together at high speeds. Bump-drafting is a huge piece of the puzzle and you’ll see drivers pushing each other with increasing intensity as we close on the finish.
What does this mean?
The slightest push gone wrong can upset a car leading to a pile-up either with the initial car spinning or the check up from a bobble creating a chain reaction. Contact isn’t a necessary ingredient either, just the volatile air from the pack can suck a car around in a hurry if a driver gets behind on their steering.
Reddick avoids the chaos in the tri-oval to win at @TALLADEGA! #GEICO500 pic.twitter.com/yCKTy1KrfN
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) April 21, 2024
Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano sit atop the odds list at +800 and +1100 – the Penske Fords looked fantastic at Atlanta in the most recent example of a drafting style track. Though Atlanta is only a 1.5-mile circuit and handling plays a bigger role, it still indicates Penske will be strong in Alabama.
Tyler Reddick won at ‘Dega in the spring and comes in at +2200. The driver leading coming to the checkered, Michael McDowell, comes in at +1800.
Once again, I have no idea who will actually claim the checkered flag when it is all said and done. I’ll throw Brad Keselowski out there as my official race winner pick at +1400.
Be sure to check out the schedule below so you don’t miss any on-track action from the weekend.
Saturday 10/05
NASCAR Xfinity Series Qualifying – 10:30 a.m. CT on USA
NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying – 12:30 p.m. CT on USA
United Rentals 250 (NASCAR Xfinity Series) – 3:00 p.m. CT on the CW
Sunday 10/06
YellaWood 500 (NASCAR Cup Series) – 1:00 p.m. CT on NBC
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