The Round of 12 closed last time out as Shane Van Gisbergen won the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte. Now just eight drivers retain championship hopes as we head to Las Vegas for the 2025 South Point 400.
Will we see another driver outside the postseason claim victory, or can one of the eight punch their championship race ticket courtesy of a win at Vegas?
Let’s dive in.
2025 South Point 400 Entry List
We have two additional drivers this week outside of the 36 series regulars. Katherine Legge will pilot the #78, making her first Cup Series start since August. JJ Yeley will also be back behind the wheel of the #44.
We've seen these two go to battle many times before.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 8, 2025
Is another @KyleLarsonRacin versus @CBellRacing classic in store for Sunday? pic.twitter.com/MAwzmhTYOJ
In Las Vegas, NASCAR returns to the type of track that has produced some of the best racing in NASCAR’s NextGen car. I expect more close racing to come Saturday, with the race coming down to the wire. Aeroblocking will once again play a role, but one thing to keep an eye on this week is strategy and fuel mileage.
The past two races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway have seen strategy play a massive role in the ending, and that trend could continue here, especially as playoff drivers look to find any way to secure their spot in the championship finale.
Playoff Picture Heading Into Las Vegas
The drama of the playoffs was on display at the ROVAL, for better or worse, as Joey Logano narrowly advanced over Ross Chastain. Expect more drama in the three races to come at Charlotte, Talladega, and Martinsville. No driver left is safe from elimination, as the gaps between drivers have shrunk.
Check out the standings below.
- Denny Hamlin +8
- Ryan Blaney +6
- Kyle Larson +4
- William Byron +4
- Christopher Bell -4
- Chase Elliott -14
- Chase Briscoe -14
- Joey Logano -24
With Talladega in the mix, this truly is anyone’s guess as to who will advance to the final round. However, in spite of his mad dash to the finish at the ROVAL, which allowed him to advance, I expect Joey Logano to be eliminated in this round.
The Round of 8 rolls into @LVMotorSpeedway. 🎲 #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/X7oaBI88LH
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 7, 2025
Additionally, the speed that William Byron possessed early in the season seems to have gone missing at the most inopportune time. With Martinsville as a track Byron has struggled at representing the final race, I also expect Byron’s championship to come to an end.
Finally, I expect both Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott to be eliminated in this round, leaving a championship four of Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Christopher Bell.
2025 South Point 400 Race Predictions
This race last season saw Joey Logano secure his spot in the championship race courtesy of an incredibly impressive late race fuel mileage stretch. While the Penske cars looked strong in the spring race, with Austin Cindric winning stage one and Penske-affiliated Josh Berry taking the checkered flag, I don’t think Logano repeats. In fact, if someone from the Penske camp wins, I’d expect it to be Ryan Blaney.
This is the time of year @joeylogano rises to the occasion.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 9, 2025
The No. 22 team looks to punch its ticket to the #Championship4 once again on Sunday. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/f1ya9HuajO
The Hendrick Motorsports cars should all be in contention for the win as well. Both Larson and Byron have had success here, and Chase Elliott finished in the top ten in the spring.
Ultimately, though, I expect the winner on Sunday to be Christopher Bell. The driver of the #20 feels like he’s being overlooked a bit heading into this round, but I expect a massive performance in the South Point 400.
Check out the schedule below so you don’t miss any on-track action.
Saturday 10/11
NASCAR Xfinity Series Qualifying – 2:05 p.m. CT on the CW App
NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying – 4:40 p.m. CT on TruTV
Focused Health 302 (NASCAR Xfinity Series) – 6:30 p.m. CT on the CW
Sunday 10/12
South Point 400 (NASCAR Cup Series) – 4:30 p.m. CT on USA and HBO Max
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