Just two races remain in the 2025 NASCAR season after Chase Briscoe claimed victory at Talladega last weekend, punching his Championship Four ticket in the process. Now, six drivers compete for the two remaining championship spots at the 2025 Xfinity 500 from Martinsville.
Will a playoff driver win and advance with Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin, or could we see someone outside of the postseason claim the checkered flag come Sunday?
Let’s dive in.
2025 Xfinity 500 Entry List
One driver outside of the 36 full-time entries makes a start this Sunday at Martinsville. Casey Mears will once again be behind the wheel of the #66 car for Garage 66.
This is the chance.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 21, 2025
It's now or never to make the #Championship4. pic.twitter.com/ExmKkukH8I
Though the NASCAR NextGen car continues to struggle at short tracks, NASCAR and Goodyear continue to look for ways to improve the product by using different tire compounds. While I expect passing struggles to remain evident on Sunday when all things are equal, the tires could produce some comers and goers. Ultimately, though, I’m expecting a largely straightforward race until the end. Look for a flurry of late race cautions to heat up the action and add drama to the playoff picture.
With how aggressive racing can get at the paperclip, I expect some hot tempers as well.
Playoff Picture Heading into Martinsville
Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe have locked themselves into the finale courtesy of their wins. Meanwhile, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell both have enough points to likely be safe if no new playoff winners emerge. However, that’s not a given, and so the points battle between those two will be one to watch.
Check out the full points standings below:
- Chase Briscoe – One Win
- Denny Hamlin – One Win
- Christopher Bell +37
- Kyle Larson +36
- William Byron -36
- Joey Logano -38
- Ryan Blaney -47
- Chase Elliott -62
For the four drivers below the cutline, Martinsville represents a must-win situation if they hope to advance. I’m not sure if that’s the case mathematically, but I am confident a win will be required to knock off Christopher Bell or Kyle Larson.
A heavyweight bout is on the card for @MartinsvilleSwy. 🥊 pic.twitter.com/dVBOuZAbON
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 23, 2025
Among the drivers remaining, William Byron has had the most struggles at Martinsville, and his postseason likely ends here in spite of two previous wins at the track. While Joey Logano will likely run well at Martinsville, I don’t believe the #22 wins either.
Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott represent the biggest threats on Sunday, in my opinion. With a new winner, I have more faith in Christopher Bell to advance than Kyle Larson. I think Larson joins Byron and Logano as the drivers eliminated this Saturday.
2025 Xfinity 500 Race Predictions
As mentioned above, I believe Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney are the two playoff drivers below the cutline most likely to win and advance on Sunday. Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell also factor into the equation. However, for the second straight week, I am picking Ryan Blaney to win and advance to the final round of the NASCAR playoffs.
On the outside looking in, @WilliamByron will need some more @MartinsvilleSwy magic if he wants to join the #Championship4 conversation. pic.twitter.com/b6GrPqbdvl
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 22, 2025
With Blaney advancing, I expect a Final Four of Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Briscoe. For drivers outside the playoffs who might play spoiler on Sunday, keep an eye on Alex Bowman in the #48. Bowman has won at Martinsville before and is looking to end the season on a high note.
Check out the schedule below so you don’t miss any on-track action.
Friday 10/24
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Qualifying – 2:10 p.m. CT on FS2
Slim Jim 200 (NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series) – 5:00 p.m. CT on FS1
Saturday 10/25
NASCAR Xfinity Series Qualifying – 1:05 p.m. CT on the CW App
NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying – 4:40 p.m. CT on TruTV
IAA and Ritchie Bros. 250 (NASCAR Xfinity Series) – 6:30 p.m. CT on the CW
Sunday 10/26
Xfinity 500 (NASCAR Cup Series) – 1:00 p.m. CT on NBC and HBO Max
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