LeBron just turned 41. Let’s give him a break – on the bench.
James is undoubtedly the best player of his generation. He’s scored 40 points against every team in the league. Played in 13% of ALL NBA Finals Series in league history. Was top 2 in MVP voting in 3 different decades – imagine Jokic is still a top 2 MVP candidate in 2040 (he’d be 44 years old). But as James 41st birthday comes and goes, it is time to realize the truth – if the Lakers want to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy a record 18th time, he cannot be a starter. The best way to add another ring to his legacy is to do it as a 6th man.
The Laker’s defense, shooting, and plus/minus stats will improve. There are signs of promise; James has positive production with bench players compared to when he plays with starters. Splitting up James and Luka Doncic’s minutes will allow each lineup to add a better defender and a more suitable role player in return. There is enough evidence that shows their current concept with both players on the floor will not work. Let’s take a look. The Lakers have a LeBron problem.
Defense
James has been steadily declining in his defensive effort over the past few years; having Anthony Davis to make up for your mistakes usually works out. Last year Davis was in the league’s top 94th percentile in STOP% (steals + offensive fouls drawn + blocks recovered by the defense), per databallr. Unfortunately, Davis is now gone, and James’ miscues look more glaring than before. He can’t rely on his athleticism anymore to make up for being in the wrong spot on the court. Players fly by when he is late to close outs, or he doesn’t get there in time. It is difficult to draw on individual defensive metrics, so let’s do the eye test. Watch these close outs and tell me what you see:
Staying on the defensive end, you could argue James chase down blocks used to be the staple of his game. It halted easy buckets for opposing teams, and sometimes players were so worried about him blocking their layup, they wouldn’t even attempt a shot. This allowed the rest of his team to get back, forcing the opposition to grind out a possession they should have easily finished. This season, James doesn’t bother getting back on defense at all, or possibly worse, isn’t fast enough to catch up. The Lakers as a team are giving up 1.18 points per possession in transition according to Second Spectrum. This number is tied for 3rd worst in the league, and I believe James has a major role in that:
Shooting
With Doncic coming over to the team last year in the most absurd trade of our lifetime, we knew James usage rate would decrease. I initially thought this might help him rest more while giving the on ball burden to Doncic and Austin Reaves. The problem is James has never been a “stand in the corner and shoot the three when I pass it to you with two seconds left on the shot clock” type of player, but that is what life is like when playing next to Doncic.
We know how James likes to shoot threes – stare down his defender, maybe take a few jab steps, look down directly into the basketball’s soul, and let it fly. It might be asking too much for him to change his offensive game plan in year 23. He’s shooting 25% from the corner this season, but even when he does get some time to dribble above the break, he is still shooting a below average 33.9% – his worst percentage since his first season in Miami, according to basketball-reference.
Plus/Minus
So if James is struggling with applying consistent effort on defense, and isn’t shooting well off the ball, what is the logical conclusion? During broadcasts, announcers will throw out James still looks like his old self, only it comes in shorter and shorter spurts. Wouldn’t those spurts be more productive and meaningful off of the bench? Playing less minutes means more throwback James and less 40 year old James. The Laker’s five man lineups best net differential don’t include James:
It is essentially the starters with either Marcus Smart or Jake Laravia. In fact, the most favorable two man lineups that include James are when he is paired with Laravia, Gabe Vincent, and Jarred Vanderbilt, according to databallr.
For comparison, the James-Doncic lineup is an unsustainable -10 net rating. Having James start on the bench works out individually as well as for the team. The Lakers have by far the worst bench point production in the league, averaging 25.8 points per game. For reference, the difference between them and the next team is 4.5 points; the same as the 29th team to 18th. Let James run the second unit, while Doncic does his thing with the starters. Now you have a formidable one-two punch instead of overlapping deficiencies. We know James is still good enough to positively impact the game. He would be the most formidable bench player of all time. It is time the Lakers try it out.
What do you think? Do the Lakers have a LeBron problem?
