The Astros offense, as potent and historic as they’ve been, has had a problem lately. That problem isn’t getting runners on base, it’s bringing them around to score.
Let’s compare the Team stats from July & August:
July: 16-8, ERA: 3.85, OPS .726
August: 14-13, ERA: 3.55, OPS .762
How can a team pitch and hit better, and still have a worse record in the month? Well, timing is everything.
The Astros Team OPS W/ RISP month by month for 2021
March/April… .727
May………… .839
June……….. .871
July………… .956
August……. .678
For example, in the last 2 games against Seattle, the Astros had 15 Hits, 4 Walks, and 1 HBP. That’s 20 men reaching base, and 0 runs to show for it.
To put that into perspective, on August 21st, the Astros beat Seattle. They had 15 Hits and 3 Walks in that game and scored 15 Runs.
Baseball is always going to “baseball”, and there is something to be said for guys having consistent roles. Teams, just like players, will go through slumps and ups and downs. That being said, I think it’s time to shake it up a bit.
Below will be the Astros Starters OBP & OPS W/ RISP. I’m proposing a bit of a “Moneyball” Batting Order, but it’s the same philosophy that’s been in baseball forever…
Get em on, get em over, get em in
Stats:
Altuve…….. OBP .346 – OPS (W/ RISP) 1.004
Brantley….. OBP .371 – OPS (W/ RISP) .754
Bregman…. OBP .360 – OPS (W/ RISP) .863
Alvarez…… OBP .344 – OPS (W/ RISP) .964
Correa……. OBP .371 – OPS (W/ RISP) .757
Gurriel……. OBP .382 – OPS (W/ RISP) .805
Tucker……. OBP .335 – OPS (W/ RISP) .819
Diaz………. OBP .333 – OPS (W/ RISP) .954
Chas……… OBP .319 – OPS (W/ RISP) .983
Meyers…… OBP .333 – OPS (W/ RISP) .626
Maldonado.. OBP .282 – OPS (W/ RISP) .628
Order by OBP High-Low:
Gurriel……… .382
Brantley……. .371
Correa……… .371
Bregman…… .360
Altuve……… .346
Alvarez……. .344
Tucker….…. .335
Diaz……….. .333
Meyers……. .333
Chas…..….. .319
Maldonado.. .282
Order by OPS W/ RISP Low-High:
Meyers……. .626
Maldonado.. .628
Brantley…… .754
Correa…….. .757
Gurri………. .805
Tucker…….. .819
Bregm…….. .863
Diaz……….. .954
Alvarez……. .964
Chas………. .983
Altuve……… 1.004
Conclusion:
Altuve has an OPS W/ RISP of 1.004, yet he’s the leadoff hitter. I propose the Astros shake up the order by front-loading it with the high OBP guys, with high OPS W/ RISP guys following them in the middle of the order.
It might not fit the typical mold of how a 1-2-3 of an order normally looks, but in this version of the lineup you have three guys in a row with a .370+ OBP. Your likelihood of one or multiple of those guys being on base, and potentially in scoring position, for the sluggers that can hit them in, should potentially lead to more runs.
My Proposed Batting Order:
Brantley…… OBP .371 – OPS (W/ RISP) .754
Correa…….. OBP .371 – OPS (W/ RISP) .757
Gurriel…….. OBP .382 – OPS (W/ RISP) .805
Bregman….. OBP .360 – OPS (W/ RISP) .863
Alvarez……. OBP .344 – OPS (W/ RISP) .964
Altuve……… OBP .346 – OPS (W/ RISP) 1.004
Diaz……..… OBP .333 – OPS (W/ RISP) .954*
Tucker..…… OBP .335 – OPS (W/ RISP) .819
Chas………. OBP .319 – OPS (W/ RISP) .983*
Maldonado.. OBP .282 – OPS (W/ RISP) .628
Meyers……. OBP .333 – OPS (W/ RISP) .626*
*rotated non-everyday starters
