A thrilling conclusion last week at Homestead saw Tyler Reddick punch his playoff ticket by passing both Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney on the final lap and claiming victory. Now just one more race remains before the championship finale with only two spots open. The tight confines of Martinsville will represent a challenge for all remaining drivers who hope to make their way to the Championship Four by winning the Xfinity 500.
No one is safe come Sunday, the stakes will be high and tempers are likely to flare. Can someone below the cutline find a win? Let’s dive in.
Playoff Picture Heading Into the 2024 Xfinity 500
- Tyler Reddick – 1 Win
- Joey Logano – 1 Win
- Christopher Bell +29
- William Byron +7
- Kyle Larson -7
- Denny Hamlin -18
- Ryan Blaney -38
- Chase Elliott -43
For all intents and purposes, both Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott are in a must-win situation when the green flag flies in Virginia. Realistically, they will not be able to make up the requisite points to advance no matter how well their day goes.
Though I think Denny Hamlin could possibly point his way in, I think a win will likely be necessary for the driver of the #11 as well. On the opposite end of the spectrum, barring disaster, Christopher Bell will likely be in on points.
Last year, @KyleLarsonRacin finally broke through at @MartinsvilleSwy.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) November 1, 2024
Another win here could catapult him toward a second championship. #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/PItE6JxtRn
That really leaves just one spot open for a driver to either make their way in with a win or by outscoring the rest of the field on Sunday. William Byron and Kyle Larson both sit in the best points situation with Byron having the edge by seven points.
This is setting up to be an incredibly dramatic conclusion to the Round of Eight.
2024 Xfinity 500 Entry List
In the Kaulig Racing #16, Shane Van Gisbergen makes another start to help get him ready for the full-time Cup schedule next season. SVG still has a lot to learn on the ovals but this type of short track can lend itself towards the road course specialists as we’ve seen AJ Allmendinger run well here in the past.
Josh Bilicki is the other part-time entry of note on Sunday as he’ll be behind the wheel of the #66 at Martinsville.
2024 Xfinity 500 Race Odds and Predictions
Of the drivers currently vying for a spot in the Championship Four, four of the top five finishers in the spring are currently not locked into the finale. Race winner William Byron (+260), second-place finisher Kyle Larson (+130), third-place finisher Chase Elliott (+190), and fifth-place finisher Ryan Blaney (+145) all showed impressive speed.
Hail Mary 👉 Hail Melon 👉 Hail Yeah pic.twitter.com/WCh7mg5u5m
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 31, 2024
Denny Hamlin (+130) finished 11th while his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate and current driver in the best points position Christopher Bell (+320) had early troubles and finished 35th.
Each of these drivers is capable of winning on Sunday but Virginia native, Denny Hamlin leads active drivers with five wins at the paper clip. Hamlin is my pick to win on Sunday making the final four in the process. While disaster struck Bell in the spring, I think the driver of the #20 gets enough points in the Xfinity 500 to secure his place in the Championship Four as well.
My final prediction for who makes the cut?
Logano, Reddick, Hamlin, and Bell.
Be sure to check out the schedule below so you don’t miss any on-track action from the weekend. The Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series are all wrapping up their penultimate rounds this weekend so you’ll want to tune in.
Friday 11/01
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Qualifying – 1:10 p.m. CT on FS2
NASCAR Xfinity Series Qualifying – 3:10 p.m. CT on NBC Sports Streaming
Zip Buy Now, Pay Later 200 (NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series) – 5:00 p.m. CT on FS1
Saturday 11/02
NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying – 1:05 p.m. CT on NBC Sports Streaming
National Debt Relief 250 (NASCAR Xfinity Series) – 3:00 p.m. CT on The CW
Sunday 11/03
Xfinity 500 (NASCAR Cup Series) – 1:00 p.m. CT on NBC
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