We are exactly 25.6% of the way through the Rockets season and they are in the middle of their best start since they were threatening the dynasty Warriors for West supremacy. Early season success and failure always come with a fluctuation of hype and despair among fans, so let me try and manage your expectations by looking at the 8 most important trends for the Houston Rockets’ hot start and how each will age throughout this season.
From poor shooting, to suffocating defense, to the emergence (once again) of their franchise player (you’ll never guess who)… Let’s predict what will age like a fine wine and what will age like that gunk you accidentally ruined your cereal with because you didn’t think to give it the smell check. Quarter Season Check-in: How will these 8 trends age for the Houston Rockets?
What’s gonna age like milk?
Top 2 in the West
Don’t get me wrong. The Rockets having the second best record in the West, and fourth in the league, is extremely encouraging for this team. That is especially true when you consider that the expectation for this season is simply to take the next step and make the playoffs. You should be excited your team has played this well a quarter of the way through the season! You should be excited when your team beats the number one team in the West!
However, I wouldn’t get my hopes up for a Play-In team matchup in the playoffs just yet. Per tankathon, the Rockets have the 7th most difficult schedule remaining and have had considerable injury luck to this point. It seems pretty likely they don’t ride quite this high for all 82. Even if they do manage to finish as a top 4 seed, the expectation for this young squad should be a competitive loss in the first or second round depending on the matchups they get. Be excited! But don’t sweat when that winning percentage drops a little. Just part of the normal ebb and flow for most teams on the come up.
Abysmal Shooting
This one kind of goes two ways. On one hand, it’s not crazy to thing that the Rockets’ 4th worst eFG% will see some regression as some players make adjustments and find a rhythm within the offense. On the other hand, there is a very real chance that these shooting woes continue into the distant future and the need for a shooter via trade becomes unavoidable.
| eFG% | TS% | 3P% | 3PA | |
| HOU | 50.3% | 54% | 32.9% | 35.8 |
| League | 53.9% | 57.3% | 35.9% | 37.5 |
Personally, I’m optimistic that this will age poorly in the way that is good for the team. Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet have been hot from 3 lately after they started the season shooting poorly and Dillon Brooks has provided a steady floor in most games. Alpi has a career low eFG% even though he’s having his best season from midrange so that water finding its level will help lift the rest of the team as well. The X factor for this issue to turn around is none other than Jalen Green.
Green’s Career Worst Start
I did it. I wrote an article about Jalen Green finally arriving as a legit force for this team. Since then, he’s had a pretty solid argument for worst player in the rotation. He might be the most confusing player that I’ve ever watched, much less rooted for.
It’s not like he was an efficient player his first three seasons, but things have gotten ugly. Since the calendar turned to November, he has posted a TS% of 55+% just three times. The midrange is at an all time low at 23% FG% and he is shooting 30% on wide open threes. 30%. Wide. Open. This team has desperately needed some dynamic perimeter play to take it to the next level along Şengün and Jalen has been tossing up wide open bricks.
What is it that makes me so brave to say this trend will age poorly at the end of the day? First, I’m a sucker for doubling down. Second, I genuinely believe that the recipe for Jalen’s turnaround is simple. After he recovered from a sickness that was probably responsible for a couple of his worst games in this stretch, he went supernova against the hobbling 76ers and led the team in scoring with a 41 point outburst at 78% TS and 4/6 from 3. Why is that something to watch and not a random magnet ball?
Ime Udoka clearly told Green not to take 10+ 3s a game and to instead focus on getting to the cup where he is finishing at a career high 68%. He took 70% of his shots within the 3 point line and found himself shooting 14 FTs (season high). It’s all about understanding your strengths and maximizing them instead of idealizing yourself into a flame-throwing shooting. He’s streaky outside the restricted area and should act like it. Hot hand? Let it fly. Gone cold? Use that freaky athleticism to get easy twos and pass to open teammates off your gravity. He doesn’t need to be a dangerous shooter, so long as he is a respectable one. Time will tell, but I’m hanging on a little longer.
Dependence on Fred
Late game crash outs aside, VanVleet has been one of the more stable members of this Rockets group since he joined the team in the 2023 offseason. Him and Şengün provide a steady floor that the Rockets can usually depend on when the offense becomes stagnant. He even has the ability to get hot and pop off against some of the best teams in the league, like Sunday night when he dropped 38 on OKC’s head). He’s been indispensable to Houston’s success climbing out of the tanking years and the organization and fanbase owe him a ton of respect.
So why is their dependence on him going to age poorly? Two reasons:
1) His limitations become glaringly obvious when he steps into the primary initiator role for long stretches. Ideally, you would be able to rely on a player with more dynamic tangibles like Jalen Green to co-star in a closing role with Alpi but he just hasn’t been that guy for most of the past 15 games. Amen would be a good option if it weren’t for the (warranted) disrespect they show him around the perimeter. Teams can’t risk him getting downhill, but they can play in-between and risk him becoming a knock-down shooter over night. The more Fred is forced to try and scale up to a team star role on a consistent basis, the more this team’s ceiling is reduced.
2) The second reason is much more an indictment on the readiness of whoever the secondary point guard would be than it is on Fred. Udoka has deployed Green with the second unit with the hopes that he would be able to provide a spark as the primary initiator but that has fallen flat so far. The game hasn’t slowed down enough for Reed Sheppard to be a consistent contributor on a playoff caliber team just yet. They’ve managed to get by so far, but it is a real weakness more competitive teams will take advantage of over time.
What will age like a fine wine?
Historically Dominant Defense
I won’t say too much here because most of the attention deserved for this defense on the court belongs to the players I’m addressing in the next few sections. That said, we can’t talk about the 2024 Houston Rockets without talking about the suffocation every opponent is experiencing when they share the floor.
Finishing in the top 10 in DEFRTG in 2023, the Rockets were immediately able to improve across the board and find themselves currently .7 behind the best defense in the NBA. Nearly every player that steps on the floor is a capable defender in their role, which is essential for a team that constantly switch every position including the center. Everyone knows their assignments and rotates on a string (with some exceptions due to young players learning) and nobody is afraid of anybody.
Of the past five NBA champs, the only one that didn’t post a top 10 Defensive Rating was the 2022 Denver Nuggets who still ranked 15th and happen to employ one of the best basketball players ever. This isn’t to say that the Rockets will find themselves in the Finals. But, it does go to show just how important an elite defense is for any team who wants to excel long term in this league.
The Rockets have the coaching, culture, and the physically and intellectually gifted players to be able to abuse other teams on the defensive end for all 82 games. Even if the injury bug bites, and I’m sure it will at some point, there is an able body at all positions but one ready to step in and contribute in a meaningful way. Look for the Rockets to finish the season as a top 5 defense at the very least.
The Terror Twins
There’s been a lot to love about this new era of Rockets basketball taking shape before our eyes. It feels like the first time in a decade that they have been anything close to a media darling. They’re even getting praise from guys like Bill Simmons, who has played the heel for Houston fans since the Harden era. The vibes shifted drastically when everyone started to take notice of Amen Thompson and Tari Eason, the Rockets’ elite bench duo becoming known as the Terror Twins.
If you’ve spent any time around any actual twins (my wife is one so I am an expert those are the rules) you know that while they do have major similarities that make them an inseparable unit, they also have glaring distinctions that glorify their individual uniqueness and allow them a lifelong chemistry. This is Amen and Tari to a tee. Between the two of them, you get a beautiful Yin and Yang of disciplined precision defense and obnoxiously chaotic anticipation and gambles. Then, as soon as you are done blinking after they’ve picked your pockets or swatted your stuff to Tomball, they’re off an running as one of the most dangerous transition duos in the world.
Tari currently has the highest Defensive Rating in the league at 96.9 per basketball-reference.com. That’ll change, but right now it’s the lowest individual rating since the 2015 season. He’s second in total steals to Dyson Daniels with about 160 less minutes played than third place. That’s roughly five games worth of minutes for a starter between him and the guy behind him. Insane. He just wreaks havoc.
By the end of this season, Amen will be considered a valid DPOY candidate. He is only allowing 57% from the restricted area, 36% from mid-range, and 32.6% from 3 point range. He is starting every possession guarding the opposing teams best perimeter but instantly becomes a master of all trades in which position he is switched or rotated into.
I haven’t even talked about how incredible they are on the offensive glass! But, there are some concerns to answer. Tari is coming off of a pretty gnarly injury season where he had to miss the majority of games. This is the first time that both players will have roles this big and responsibilities that change on a nightly basis. However, they are up for the challenge. These aren’t just two good defenders. They’re two grade-A psychos who eat, sleep, and breathe hustle and hoops. Their relentless motors and never ending playmaking are going to be one of the key things that help the Rockets make some serious noise throughout the next 61 games.
The Villain’s Redemption Arc
Ever since he inked his 4 year $86 million contract with the Rockets, Dillon Brooks has done nothing but prove that he is worth every penny. He left Memphis being scapegoated for their playoff collapse in part because of his ongoing antics with LeBron James. Many media members and fans pointed and laughed at Houston for signing him while Rockets fans themselves writhed in pain over the specifics of the contract.
He has been exactly the kind of vet that this young Rockets team needed to come in and become a culture maker. He, alongside VanVleet, have implemented a hard-nosed, relentless effort mentality that has become contagious across the locker room. However, it’s not just he intangibles that have made Brooks an important part of building a contender. The results are just as glaring.
He’s holding shooters to 34.6% from 3, 33% from mid-range, and 56% in the restricted area. Those are sub-league average numbers all around. He’s consistently able to use his strength and physicality to make both stars and role players uncomfortable in just about every area on the court. We’ve even seen the Rockets deploy him on bigs like Wembanyama to keep them away from the hoop off-ball and disrupt their path to it once they have possession. All this with a career low in usage and a career high 38% 3PT%.
Net Rating is largely a team stat, but Brooks rank as 3rd in the Association puts him in the same air as players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum when it comes to their team’s overall effectiveness when those players are on the floor. Barring injury, there’s really no reason to think this story won’t keep getting better and better as the Rockets and Brooks run head first into the rest of the NBA.
Şengün’s All-NBA Campaign
We’ve known for years. We’ve been trying to y’all! Alperen Şengün is the truth. While media and online personalities were calling for the Rockets to trade him to make way for a Jalen Green led core, we knew that we had a blossoming star merely waiting for the rest of the NBA world to give him the respect he’s earned. One season after arguably being snubbed for an All-Star selection, everyone is finally catching up.
Alpi has been dazzling with his intoxicating offensive bag, hitting teams with his signature Turkish Twister or the Flamingo, but the biggest story for him this season has been his presence as a legitimate rim protector. He’s not the gaudy big shouldered presence of a Gobert or a lanky court-wide reach of Wemby. However, his extremely high basketball IQ and improved conditioning combined with Udoka’s psychotic emphasis on the defensive end have morphed him into the anchor of one of the best defenses in the league (2nd in DEFRTG).
These first 21 games culminated in an impressive near triple double against the current 1 seed in the West and an announcement from the NBA that Alperen Şengün had been selected as the Western Conference Player of the Week for Nov. 25-Dec. 1. It’s a well deserved honor that feels like the start of long overdue media hype that Alpi has warranted for a while. If he maintains this level of play for 70+ games and the Rockets stay comfortably in the playoff race, he should easily find himself imitating the 2023 Sabonis model, who received peripheral MVP votes without providing the defense Şengün has.
MVP votes aside, consideration as a top 15 player in the NBA should only become more and more favorable for him as the season progresses. If the Rockets could actually get some national TV games outside of NBA TV, the narrative would be easy to form. Until then, he’ll just have to keep punishing anyone who comes near the paint, whether it’s with a devastating spin or stifling help-side block.
61 games to go
I won’t lie to you. Every time I look at the standings and see the Rockets sitting at the 2nd spot in the West I find it hard to believe. This team was in the mud for three consecutive years before Rafael Stone, Ime Udoka, and company pulled us out and molded this team into your favorite team’s least favorite matchup. How far they go this season, I don’t know. A competitive playoff appearance is a success for now. I’m hopeful they’ve got enough in them to maybe even do a little more. Either way, this first quarter is making the next few months look pretty sweet. Quarter Season Check-in: How will these 8 trends age for the Houston Rockets?
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