The Texans enter week 18 locked in as the #4 seed in the AFC. There are three possible teams they can face in the wild card round, so lets break down the pros and cons of each potential matchup to find out who would be the Texans ideal opponent.
Steelers
Pros: Lack of Pass Catching Depth
The Steelers have been way too reliant on George Pickens this year. We have seen in the last few games when he has been out that the Steelers offense does not look the same when Pickens is not on the field. They have gotten blown out in the last three games because teams have started to realize that the Steelers do not have many reliable pass catching options outside of Pickens.
This bodes well for the Texans as they have one of the better secondaries in the NFL and one of the best corners in Derek Stingley Jr. He can slow Pickens down and make him less of a threat. What this does is that it frees up the rest of the defense. It allows Demeco Ryans to call up more blitzes because the Steelers don’t have many pass catchers who can quickly separate and win one on one matchups quickly.
Cons: Defensive Line Could Give Texans Problems
The Steelers do have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They have TJ Watt who is arguably the best pass rusher in the NFL and solid support pieces around him in Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith. This does not fare well for the Texans who have struggled to protect CJ Stroud all year. The Texans have allowed the 2nd most sacks all year.
This makes it hard for the Texans to sustain drives as one big sack usually turns a manageable down and distance into an astronomical one. It’s hard to beat good teams this way as it makes it hard on the offense to score points if you can’t sustain long drives.
This leaves the defense with no margin for error as it forces them to be perfect all game to even have a chance of winning.
Ravens
Pros: Suspect Secondary
The Ravens pass defense has been their main weakness this year, allowing the 3rd most passing yards per game in the season. They also rank in the bottom half in passing yards per attempt allowed. The Ravens have an issue defending against high flying pass offenses. In their week 17 game, the Texans never attempted to throw the ball down the field and as a result got blown out against the Ravens.
If the Texans want to have any kind of a chance in this game, Bobby Slowik has to call an aggressive game. He cannot play it safe and be conservative as the Ravens feast on those kinds of teams. The way too beat the Ravens is to beat them at their own game and get into a shootout, this would expose their pass defense.
The Ravens have a tendency to make mistakes in big playoff games so by being aggressive, the Texans can always be within striking distance of the Ravens and just wait for the big mistake that always seem to accompany the Ravens in the playoffs
Cons: Going Against Lamar Plus Top Run Defense
Lamar Jackson is having one of the greatest passing seasons of all time, having a 39 to 4 Touchdown to interception ratio while having the 2nd best passer rating of all time at 121. The Texans have one of the better defenses in the NFL but Lamar tore it to shreds in week 17.
Lamar has really evolved as a passer this year. Previously around 2021-2022 seasons, Lamar struggled in pure pass situations (when defenses know you have to pass) however this year it has become a strength this year.
On top of everything the Ravens have the number one ranked run defense in the league so you can’t beat them by playing keep away. The Texans can’t stop Lamar by keeping him of the field by running the ball a lot because the Ravens rush defense makes sure of that. It makes it that the only way to beat the ravens is by shootout against Lamar Jackson.
Chargers
Pros: They Don’t Beat Good Teams
The Chargers have not shown an ability to beat good teams this year. The only team above .500 they beat was the broncos who are 9-7. They got blown out by the Ravens and Bucs and got swept in both games against the Chiefs. That is not a recipe for success in the playoffs as you would only face good teams.
They have had the benefit, just like the Texans, of playing an easy schedule. There would not be a severe disadvantage for the Texans in that regard as neither side has shown an ability of consistently beating good teams. This means that if the Texans struggle out of the gate, the Chargers won’t pull away as they have to get adjusted to not playing the Patriots and Raiders every week.
Cons: Jim Harbaugh Plus Solid Defensive play
Much like the Steelers, the Chargers have relied on their defense for most of the year to get them wins as they are number one in the NFL in points allowed per game. The Texans have been struggling to score points all year and especially in the second half of the year. It would be ideal for the Texans to get a soft defense to play against in the first round but that is not the case.
In a low scoring game you tend to back the team with the better coaching staff in Jim Harbaugh loves these types of situations. These are the types of games he won at Michigan and at the Chargers, when it is low scoring and close. His teams tend to be more disciplined in these games, committing less penalties and not turning the ball over. The Texans on the other hand, are one of the most penalized teams in the league this year and CJ Stroud has double digit interceptions on the year while Herbert on the other hand only has 3 interceptions. When the game is close, you expect the Texans to make the big mistake and not the Chargers
