It’s time for Rockets fans to close the Trade Machines

Listen to me, Rockets fans. Let me do you a favor. Let me give you some advice. Go to your browser, click on Spotrac, ESPN, or Fanspo, or whatever site you sickos have loaded up to send off the Rockets’ young hoopers for some geriatric former superstar or fringe All-Star, and close that tab. Everything the Rockets need for the 2024 season already suits up in red, black, and white every tip-off.

Let me tell you why in two parts: First, some team-building philosophy. Second, some realities about the team that’s being built. It’s time for Rockets fans to close the Trade Machines.

Game the System or Build Something Special?

These are the two dynamics we see at play for a lot of teams in the NBA who have gone through rebuilds recently. You compile picks and promising players, then you reach a fork in the road where, if you’ve got some productive talent, you have to decide if you want to take a big swing to add a star or two OR ride it out and “trust the process.” Both strategies require some nerve and typically, a lot of luck.

In recent years, we’ve seen each of these strategies play out to major extremes with some of the highest profile teams in the league.

Building Something Special

The Boston Celtics stood pat with their core for a long time before they really settled into their identity and surrounded them with the right complimentary pieces. Marcus Smart might be a casualty of those moves, but they still waited it out for a while before making the move to an elite version of him in Jrue Holiday. The OKC Thunder are the other example, though they haven’t followed all the way through with a championship like the Celtics. They accelerated their rebuild with the acquisition and eventual ascension of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but their patience has been undeniable with the roster at large. Both teams will have several seasons with their core in tact and relative flexibility to move around the edges, making it possible for them to compete with the best of the best for a long time.

Gaming the System

Then, there’s the Phoenix Suns. They were a super fun Bubble team with an emerging star in Devin Booker and a couple of the most coveted role players in the league in Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson. I’m sure you know what happened next. They lost in the Finals even though CP3 was able to raise them to the next level and it was all downhill from there. They stripped the roster of any and all depth to get Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in consecutive seasons and now find themselves fighting for the 10th seed in the West to try and avoid their worst finish since 2020.

Phoenix is one of the easiest examples to pick on, but which team in recent memory has gone all in on these big swing “acquire a star at all costs” trades that hasn’t lived to regret it in the very near future. The Lakers are the only team I can think of and they’ve been on a steady decline since their championship in 2020. These teams pay an extremely high price when they offload relevant role players and draft picks for what is essentially a gamble. It’s a short cut that only seems worth it for teams making one last desperate push at the end of a window.

Can’t open the oven too early

When I was getting impatient with my career path a mentor told me that all the work you put into your life and career is like cooking something in an oven. If you keep opening the oven to check on it, it’s going to slow down the process. If you take it out early, you might be able to eat but you wont get the meal you set out to make. I’m sure the metaphor falls apart eventually. Sometimes you have to pivot, yada yada yada. The point stands regardless! If you want to do this right, you have to let the thing cook.

That said, the Rockets’ messaging throughout the entire organization has been very consistent ever since they hired Ime Udoka before the 2023 season. The plan is to build something special. They want to give it time. The trade happy media outlet talking heads and Twitter (X, whatever) specialists want so badly for the Rockets to get desperate when they have absolutely zero reason to.

When you’re confident in what you’re putting together, you don’t need to try and game the system. When the results are this good this early, you don’t need to panic about extending a window. The Rockets will be 2nd in the West at the midway point and their three best players are 22 years old and under. Let it cook.

Why the Rockets will stand pat

Ok, it was a little misleading to say the second part of this would be about “some realities about the current team” when really I’m focusing most of it on one man: The most polarizing player in this rebuild. The most criticized decision in Rafael Stone’s tenure as the Rockets’ GM. The true test of Rockets fans’ patience and wherewithal… Jalen Green.

The rest of the crew

I can already hear the Turkish Collective coming after me as I write this, but hear me out. Y’all don’t need to tell you that the Rockets don’t need to trade away Alperen Şengün. Anyone with any amount of sense already knows that. Anyone who disagrees is not worth talking to unless they actually start watching more Rockets basketball or develop a general understanding of hoops.

Amen deserves praise of his own, but you already know he’s going to get it. He’s been untouchable. He should get some credit for how much his game is helping elevated Green’s but that’s probably a deep dive on the duo for another. The other players on this Rockets team has some weaknesses, but overall have been exceptional in their role considering their age and growth to this point. They’re going to stay put, but I believe the biggest reason for that is none other than number 4.

It all centers on Green

This trade season is about Jalen. The guard position was easily the most inconsistent during the first half of this season and, due to the short term nature of VanVleet’s contract and role, Jalen was the odd man out according to large segments of the media and fanbase. His poison pill contract would have made him very difficult to trade during this season, but that didn’t stop the know-it-all mob from looking for his replacement around every corner.

There have always been valid reasons to be optimistic about Green’s path to stardom, from his supernova performances, reputation as a gym rat, obvious coach-ability, and apparent desire to contribute to winning above personal achievements. Now, over the last 78 games, we are finally getting to see the fruit of those qualities coalesce into one of the most dangerous young players in the game.

Slowly, then all at once

In high school, I took my little sister to see the movie based off the John Green book, The Fault in our Stars. The movie was whatever, but one of the lines has stuck in my brain ever since. The main character and narrator is describing her path to love by comparing it to how you fall asleep, “slowly and then all at once.”

Jalen Green’s path to “untouchable status” is working out that same way.

Ben did a lot of leg work in that post above, so shoutout to him and the others like Don Dougan who have been tracking stuff like this along with Jalen’s stats since Thanksgiving “Eve.” These numbers show us that Jalen very clearly has not been nearly as bad as the narrative for nearly an entire season’s worth of games. The valleys of inconsistencies have become more and more sparse while a dependable scorer is finding his level and making way for unconscious runs where he becomes an elite level scorer the likes of the best in the league.

That’s the “slowly” part of his path. Growing pains that still yield noticeable results that keep you wanting more. The “all at once” is what we’ve been watching since the calendar flipped to January.

Those numbers are against the Mavericks, Celtics, Lakers, Wizards, and Memphis twice and the Rockets went 5-1 in that stretch. Are those good teams? All but one are in the playoff race, but what do I know?

This is not just a “hot streak.” Those happen when someone randomly starts to make shot they were already taking. We’re seeing a holistic leveling up in scoring, mentality, playmaking, defense, and just about everything in between. Not a perfect player? Yeah. Gonna regress in some way at some point? Of course. But, the floor is rising. He’s taking over and making a difference even when the shot is spotty. He’s becoming the player he was drafted to be… and more.

We’re good, thanks

I trust the Rockets organization from top to bottom. They have really done everything right since Ime was handed the reins, with a lot of great decisions leading up to that. I don’t think I have anything to say that they aren’t already saying to themselves and to people close to the team. So this is for you guys.

We don’t want a Jalen Green replacement because we don’t need a Jalen Green replacement. He is coming into his own and we all just need to be patient. Probably more patient than you anticipated because of Silas and KPJ, but trust me. Trust Ime and Rafael. They know they’ve got something special (Jalen himself, and the team at large) on their hands and it is still in the very VERY early stages. Let it cook and sit back and enjoy Şengün, Amen, and Jalen taking the league by storm for this era of Rockets basketball. You won’t regret it.

In closing

Eventually, the Rockets are going to do something with these Phoenix picks and the tradable salary they’ve set themselves up with. The more time goes by, the more I think that the “something” they might do is hang onto the picks and use them to refill expensive role player spots on the roster, similar to what OKC has done with their horde of picks. Maybe those salary filler guys are just good guys to have around and it’s not worth the chemistry loss to consolidate. Who really knows for sure.

But that’s an offseason Rockets problem. Get data this year. See how the playoffs go. Let the core 7 young fellas cut their teeth and learn. Then, plot out a path forward that makes the most sense. For now, don’t panic and trust the vision. Close out the trade machines and do something more productive like read Brandon Sanderson or listen to GNX. I don’t know. That’s what I’ll be doing on February 6th.

P.S. We really had loud voices in the fanbase begging for Mikal Bridges and Max Strus when we’ve had this cooking the whole time. Cannot imagine finding myself that lacking in ball knowledge. Anyway, here’s to the ascension. Hope you got your tickets when you could because the price is only going up.

It’s time for Rockets fans to close the Trade Machines.