We’re officially past the ’24-’25 NBA All-Star break, which means it’s time to buckle up for the final 27 games of what has been a roller coaster of a season for your Houston Rockets. Whether you’ve been having the time of your life or are still adjusting your neck brace from all of the whiplash this team has given you, there’s a lot to look forward to and still several questions left to answer as we turn our sights toward the end of this regular season.
Here are 5 bold (at least I think so) predictions for the rest of the Houston Rockets season to help get your mind right for the end of this ride:
The defense returns to form, thanks to…
It has felt like a tale of two seasons for the Houston Rockets leading up to the All-Star break. One season marked by exceptional (borderline historical) defense, unmatched hustle, and insane injury luck. The second featuring injuries to three starters and continued injury management for key rotation guys alongside their top 3 defense sinking all the way down to a middle of the pack unit. It has not been a pleasant turn of events.
But the end of this struggle is in sight. How do I know? Well, first, the team is getting healthier and more healthy players is always better than less healthy players. They’ve been getting some much needed rest and should have some much needed reinforcements to help with effort and energy as we head to the playoffs. However, there is one player in particular who will singlehandedly flip the Rockets defensive fortune once they return to face the Timberwolves on Friday. That’s right, Jabari Smith Jr. is going to spark the Rockets defense’s return to form.
I know, Smith Jr. and the advanced stats have a complicated relationship. His place among the other wings on the rosters deserves a lot of attention long term. He also disappears into the background more than any other player the Rockets have featured since 2021. All of the ins and outs of Jabari and his impact on games deserves a full article on its own, and this isn’t the place for that.
That said, when Jabari went down on January 3rd, the Rockets lost one of the key cogs to the defensive identity they have established. He has been a key player in the rebounding effort, especially defensively, and the team has felt that absence painfully. Dillon Brooks effectively stepped into the power forward role on defense so that Amen could dedicate his efforts to the POA and/or the other team’s best player, which means that as the Rockets forced misses they were relying on Brooks, one of the team’s worst rebounders, to go head to head with tall forwards and centers to end the possession. Brooks slotting into that role also meant that he took on Jabari’s help-side rim protection responsibilities. You’ve seen how that has gone, whether you realized the reason or not.
With Jabari Smith Jr.’s return the Rockets will get a much needed shot in the arm for their defense, rebounding, and not to mention, shooting! We still don’t know who of the Rockets most trusted 6 players will go to the bench longterm, even though the answer should very obviously be Dillon at this point, but the added wing and rim protection depth that they will get back to close out the season will lead to their rise back to the top of the defensive leaderboard.
Jalen Green continues his late season heroics
It’s probably going to take some sort of Herculean effort from Jalen Green in the playoffs in order for Rockets fans to stop overthinking him. In the meantime, he’s been turned into a nice two-way player who’s shown no real signs of approaching a peak anytime soon. He’s turning in his best season since he entered the league and has started to produce much more of the the long-awaited consistency that will help catapult him toward the upper echelon of NBA scorers. Fans who are not actively trying to avoid seeing it can tell that a flip has switched for the first building block of the Houston Rockets rebuild and, barring any more injuries, he will play a vital role in the Rocket’s success moving forward.
His development this season bodes exceptionally well for a team looking to bounce back from the past two months of play and catapult themselves back into the conversation of teams hoping to make noise in the playoffs. Green has shown each season that there is a post-All-Star break animal waiting to be released on the rest of the NBA. Fans have cried year after year that this manifestation would take root throughout longer stretches, and seemed to finally be rewarded for their patience at the end of November when he seemed to find a version of that gear much earlier.
January Jalen turned in the best all-around month of his career (yes, even better than March 2024) that likely would have led into February if it weren’t for a hand and knee injury that were clearly affecting his ability to maintain the performances he had been producing. Still, he found ways to impact games and showed signs that his most needed improvements were finally taking shape even on the nights that the shot wasn’t falling. He’s been good. All the hand-wringing and pretending to be smarter than everyone who has eyes and numbers to back up that he has been good can be put to rest. But, if the Rockets want to truly set their sights near the top of the West and potentially surprise a team in the first round they’ll need him to be more than good.
Which brings us to the actual prediction. With some much needed rest and the already budding improvements, there is no reason to expect anything other than the return of Jalen Green’s late season heroics. We will see the baseline player that has been established since Thanksgiving continue to soar to new heights with regularity as the playoff push ensues. Look for the rested Jalen Green, reborn in a winning culture, to take hold of the go-to scorer and closer roles that have been waiting for him to claim them as he, Amen, and Şengün lead the Rockets back to the playoffs for the first time in 5 years.
Amen Thompson named DPOY
This one feels strange to put out there, given the recent news of DPOY favorite, Victor Wembanyama’s, season-ending blood clot that was announced on February 20th. I hope that his recovery and treatment are as smooth as possible and that this has no longstanding effects on his life.
That said, those who get to talk about basketball would be hard pressed to ignore the overwhelming void that his absence is leaving in the defensive standout conversation. Which is exactly why I’m expecting every player who would even dream of being awarded the Hakeem Olajuwon trophy to be ramping up their PR once the news cycle has moved on. This is where Amen Thompson comes in.
I had originally listed this as Amen being named to First Team All Defense, but the longer I stared at the section title the more that seemed to do a disservice to the defensive resumé that Thompson has been putting together. He is not just in the conversation to be one of the 5 best defenders in the NBA. He is fighting for the top spot. Per Cleaning the Glass, Amen finds himself in the 99th percentile in block percentage (alongside Chet Holmgren at 99th and Victor Wembanyama at 100th) and 82nd in steal percentage while staying in the 72nd percentile in foul percentage. In other words, he is elite at generating blocks and steals for his position without committing fouls.
And it’s not just the playmaking chops. According the nba.com, he’s forcing opponents to shoot 40.8% from the field on 10.8 attempts, which is the 7th best among every player in the NBA regardless of sample size. Among those who have played at least 40 games, it’s the best in the league. He’s simply on an incredibly short list of the league’s most outstanding defenders. You could argue that the only one who makes as big of a difference as he does on the floor will no longer be eligible for the award when that day comes.
Coming off of a well-earned break, Amen will continue his dominance with a fresh step down the stretch while he creates an undeniable case for an award that he’s destined to hoist before he’s finished with this league. Your 2024-2025 Defensive Player of the Year will be Amen Thompson.
Alperen Şengün named to an All-NBA team
It felt good for the Rockets to finally be represented in the All Star game for the first time since James Harden and Russell Westbrook shared the accomplishment in the 2019 season. Alperen Şengün was the perfect player to do it too. Since he was traded for during the 2021 draft, he’s done nothing but impress with his dazzling passes and undeniable knack for putting the ball through the hoop.
He’s been Houston’s best player since Ime Udoka took over and entrusted him with a premier role on the team. Even through a couple of bumpy occasions and defensive substitutions, Alperen has shown that he is primed to work through the mess of maturing in the NBA and do the work to rise to the top of the league. That has been most shockingly seen in this season with the rise of his defensive responsibility and production. He’s used in a way that maximizes his strengths while hiding some of his weaknesses, and it has resulted in him anchoring one of the best defenses in the NBA thus far.
Even though his scoring efficiency has taken a dip this year, he’s claimed a spot as one of the best 20-30 players in the NBA. Now the true test of greatness begins. All-Star is a very nice accolade to add to your Wikipedia page and, honestly, probably gets more attention than it should. The real prize amongst his NBA peers will be the All-NBA honors given to a much more selective group. Only 15 players, 3 sets of 5 players regardless of conference, will be awarded the right to call themselves and All-NBA talent.
Now that Şengün has earned his spot as an All-Star, the campaign has already begun. It’s up to him to separate himself from the rest of the group who will be vying for a spot by upping his game to another level. Unfortunately, Alperen’s skillset and role (when the team is at its best, at least) are not suited to the kind of statistical eye candy that could make him a shoe-in. He’ll need to improve his efficiency and show that he can become an even more dominant player than he has been so far. He’ll need to continue to figure out traps and doubles while also refraining from the habit of settling for post ups against players with significant size advantages.
He’s built for this kind of task. The tough-minded Turkish phenom has shown time and time again that when the game gets more difficult, he just gets better. Şengün will do the same here as the season approaches its end. He’ll stake his claim as not only one of the most important players in the 2024-2025 season, but one of the most impactful on a team looking to upset the established order of “who’s who” in the NBA.
By the time the awards are announced, we’ll be hearing that Alperen Şengün is considered one of the 15 best players in the league for this breakthrough season for the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets finish top 4 in West and advance
A six game losing streak saw the team slip all the way down from 2nd to 5th in the Western Conference standings before they eventually got their act together and popped back up to 4th. Panic had set in for fans, and many were retrospectively bemoaning the teams decision to not move on any available (or unavailable) stars at the deadline. Frankly, the panic probably had more to do with a fanbase so desperate to root for a good team after years of tanking that they lost their grip once it seemed like that might be slipping away.
Some very important injuries and fatigue due to the teams relentless play style were the two biggest factors in the Rockets slide down the standings. Now, they are just waiting on the return of their veteran ball-security aficionado, Fred VanVleet, to return before they can feature a lineup of near perfect health. Once that happens, expect the team to take full control of their destiny and solidify themselves as a top team in the West. They’ll finish this regular season with home court advantage heading into the playoffs.
Speaking of the playoffs, there has been a lot of noise from media and fans alike that the Rockets are the favored matchup among teams in the West. That may be the case, but it will be to their peril. Given the state of the West, there are really only a small handful of teams that should consider themselves a cut above the rest and, so long as the Rockets do finish in the top 4, they will not see Houston in the first round regardless. Every iteration of every competitive team in the West this season is unproven in the playoffs. The only exception possibly being the Nuggets, who have found firmer footing after an abysmal start to the season. OKC, Memphis, these versions of the two LA teams, Julius Randle’s T-Wolves, AD’s Mavs, Zach LaVine’s Kings, and Jimmy Butler’s Warriors are all question marks in the 2025 playoffs, no matter how well they’ve played in the regular season.
That is not to say that the Rockets should consider themselves a favorite, but that realistically they are no more unproven and untested than most of these teams as they currently stand. We can expect growing pains in the postseason this year, but I am just as readily predicting that the Rockets young stars, empowered and emboldened by Ime Udoka and co, alongside their championship vets and energized by their win-or-die-trying mentality will overcome their first round matchup and surprise the league with an appearance in the divisional round of the playoffs.
You can hate it, doubt it, or completely disassociate and pretend like it didn’t happen, but the Houston Rockets are going to shock some people on their journey to the top. You’ve read the predictions! Don’t say you weren’t warned.
5 Bold Predictions for the rest of the Houston Rockets season.
