2026 South Point 400 Preview: NASCAR Chase Approaches Halfway Mark at Vegas

Kyle Larson turned in a dominant win last week at Kansas to cement himself atop the Chase standings. For the second straight week, NASCAR will head to a 1.5-mile circuit as the Cup Series rolls into Las Vegas for the 2026 South Point 400.

With the rest of the field chasing Larson and the #5 team, could we see a new face among the Chasers in Victory Lane this week, or will Larson widen the gap on the field with yet another postseason win?

Let’s dive in.

2026 South Point 400 Entry List

Once again, the Cup Series entry list this week features just the 36 charter entries. We did get some big silly season news this week, as it was announced that Brad Keselowski will be leaving RFK Racing at the end of the season. A difference in vision for the team was the reason given, as Keselowski steps back from his role as both co-owner of the team and driver. It will be interesting to see where the veteran lands next, as it feels like a lot of the pieces for next season have already been sorted. Meanwhile, RFK’s lineup change will need to be monitored as well. While the team is running three entries currently, only two of the entries will be chartered in 2027 – likely Ryan Preece and Chris Buescher. It will remain to be seen if RFK runs a third entry full-time as an open car.

A return to a 1.5-mile circuit means we are likely to see plenty of passing in Sunday’s race. Aeroblocking will also be a big factor as drivers look to take away the line from the drivers trailing them. Strategy could play a role as well, as we saw years ago in Joey Logano’s thrilling win here back in the old playoff format.

Chase Standings

With two wins in the postseason thus far, including last week’s complete domination, Kyle Larson now looks to be the driver to beat for the championship this year. Things can change in a hurry in the Cup Series, but the #5 team appears to be peaking at the right time. Still, we have a lot of racing left for other drivers to contend for the title. Let’s take a look at the current standings.

1. Kyle Larson
2. Denny Hamlin -26
3. Christopher Bell -50
4. Joey Logano -67
5. Ryan Blaney -91
6. Ty Gibbs -94
7. Tyler Reddick -111
8. Chase Briscoe -123
9. Austin Cindric -140
10. Bubba Wallace -140
11. Carson Hocevar -150
12. William Byron -158
13. Chase Elliott -161
14. Ryan Preece -173
15. Chris Buescher -186
16. Daniel Suarez -187

Larson’s dominance at Kansas has likely shortened the list of true contenders even further. I don’t want to count Ryan Blaney or Ty Gibbs out just yet, but I believe at this stage we have a four-horse race between Larson, Hamlin, Logano, and Bell. I’ve had Hamlin as my championship favorite up to this point, but with Larson’s current form, I believe he has to be the favorite moving forward.

2026 South Point 400 Race Predictions

Back in the spring, Denny Hamlin came away from Las Vegas with the victory. The #11 team will absolutely be a factor in Sunday’s race, but as we saw at Kansas, the team is just a half-step below race-winning speed. Hamlin’s JGR teammates all finished in the top ten as well, with polesitter Christopher Bell finishing P4. Bell is primed for another great finish as well.

The Penske Fords were a non-factor here in the spring, as Joey Logano was the highest finisher in 15th. However, I think that camp has made some changes in their 1.5-mile program, as evidenced by Austin Cindric’s second-place finish at Kansas last week. Still, I don’t expect Cindric, Logano, or Blaney to have improved enough to get the win at LVMS on Sunday.

The Hendrick Motorsports cars struggled for much of the season, but Las Vegas was a notable exception. Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Kyle Larson all finished top ten, with Elliott and Byron finishing second and third, respectively. Chevrolet was working through the kinks of a new body early this year, but they seem to have it figured out now at HMS – at least in the #5 camp. Still, it feels like William Byron is due for a race win at some point this year, and the driver of the #24 does tend to run well here at Vegas. I’m going with Byron as my race winner pick.

Check out the schedule below so you don’t miss any on-track action this week!

Saturday 10/03

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Practice – 1:00 p.m. CT on the ESPN App

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Qualifying – 2:05 p.m. CT on the ESPN App

NASCAR Cup Series Practice – 3:30 p.m. CT on TruTV

NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying – 4:35 p.m. CT on TruTV

Focused Health 302 (NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series) – 6:30 p.m. CT on the CW

Sunday 10/04

South Point 400 (NASCAR Cup Series) – 4:30 p.m. CT on USA and HBO Max

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