2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Preview: Season Concludes at Homestead

While Kyle Larson looked to clinch a second straight championship last week at Martinsville Speedway, it was his Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron who went to Victory Lane. Still, Larson’s performance at Martinsville was enough to carry a 67-point lead into the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race. With Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell standing as the only two drivers mathematically within reach, Larson has all but locked up the Championship. Still, anything can happen when rubber meets the road.

We have plenty to talk about ahead of the final race of the season.

2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Entry List

The Cup Series will have a full field on Sunday as four open cars join the chartered entries. Corey Heim will once again be behind the wheel for 23XI in the part-time #67 entry for the team. Joining Heim will be JJ Yeley in the #44, Casey Mears in the #62, and Chad Finchum in the #66.

One of the major pieces of news heading into Homestead was the announcement that Spire Motorsports would be suspending Carson Hocevar for the season finale. Hocevar’s controversial driving came to a head at Martinsville, where the driver of the #77 brake-checked Austin Cindric multiple times, resulting in the #2 exiting the race. Hocevar has been the center of multiple issues this season and, frankly, the pattern of behavior likely was always headed this way. Justin Haley will pilot the #77 in Hocevar’s place.

Hocevar’s suspension wasn’t the only big news of the weekend, either. Dodge announced a return to the NASCAR Cup Series beginning in 2027. Kaulig Racing will be the flagship team for the manufacturer in the Cup Series, as they have been for RAM in the Truck Series this season.

Chase Standings

As mentioned above, Kyle Larson carries a sizeable 67-point lead over Christopher Bell in second place. Denny Hamlin is even further back in third, 70 points behind the #5. The max number of points possible in a race is 76, meaning if anyone is to overtake the #5, it will take an incredible performance coupled with disaster for Larson.

1. Kyle Larson
2. Christopher Bell -67
3. Denny Hamlin -70
4. Chase Briscoe -84
5. Joey Logano -103
6. Tyler Reddick -125
7. Ryan Blaney -133
8. Ty Gibbs -160
9. William Byron -166
10. Chase Elliott -201
11. Austin Cindric -206
12. Bubba Wallace -212
13. Carson Hocevar -235
14. Ryan Preece -255
15. Daniel Suarez -259
16. Chris Buescher -270

With Kyle Larson’s championship all but locked up, the points battle in the Cup Series isn’t as intense as some of the other series. With that in mind, I did want to touch briefly on the O’Reilly and Trucks Series, as both have points battles coming down to the wire!

O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Battle

Justin Allgaier carries a 22-point lead into the season finale at Homestead, with Jesse Love in second place looking to go back-to-back. Corey Day is just 23 points back in third. Carson Kvapil and Sheldon Creed aren’t eliminated yet either, with Kvapil 31 points back and Creed 42 points back. Allgaier is the veteran here, and I expect him to maintain his lead over the contenders, walking away with another O’Reilly Auto Parts Series championship.

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Championship Battle

The Truck Series battle for the championship is a two-horse race between Layne Riggs and Kaden Honeycutt. The two drivers have gone back and forth all season, and it comes as no surprise to see these two battling it out for the championship here at Homestead. Honeycutt carries a 20-point cushion into Homestead, and I think that will be enough to give the Texan a championship win over his rival Riggs.

2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Predictions

Homestead-Miami Speedway steadily produces some of the best on-track action among the circuits on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. We’ve seen some incredible battles at this track with the NextGen car, and I don’t expect any different on Sunday.

The preferred line at the track is right up next to the wall, dancing on the edge of disaster. That line has seemed to favor drivers with extensive dirt track experience in the past, as evidenced by the last three race winners at this track. Those drivers are Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Christopher Bell. Others will undoubtedly be competitive, but I think the winner is likely to come from these three.

I can’t help but wonder if Larson’s championship hopes being what they are means he takes a more conservative approach and doesn’t push as hard for the win. My thoughts here are simple. If Larson gets enough stage points to lock up a title regardless of his ultimate finish, I think he pushes for the win.

If Larson is unable to accrue enough stage points to clinch the title by the time the final stage rolls around, I believe the #5 will adopt a more conservative approach even if that isn’t his style. In this scenario, Larson doesn’t ask too much of his car but still finishes in a respectable position, while Tyler Reddick comes out on top in the race.

Of course, given Reddick’s impressive ability here, he might beat Larson regardless. I’m taking the #45 as my race winner pick this Sunday.

Check out the schedule below so you don’t miss any on-track action this week!

Friday 11/06

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Qualifying – 1:30 p.m. CT on FS2

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Practice – 3:00 p.m. CT on the ESPN App

NASCAR Cup Series Practice – 4:30 p.m. CT on TruTV

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Championship Race – 6:30 p.m. CT on FS1

Saturday 11/07

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Qualifying – 12:00 p.m. CT on the ESPN App

NASCAR Cup Series Qualifying – 1:30 p.m. CT on TruTV

NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series Championship Race – 4:00 p.m. CT on the CW

Sunday 11/08

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race – 2:00 p.m. CT on NBC and HBO Max

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