It’s all about motivation. While some NFL teams are more motivated than ever at this point in the year, others are dreaming about margaritas in Cancun. It’s important as gamblers that we do not mail in the last two weeks of the regular season ahead of the big playoff bets. This is bankroll building time before we get to the best gambling stretch of the year.
Last week: -1.58 units
Season record: -7.75 units
*lines via FanDuel unless stated otherwise
Two-team 6-point teaser (-120 Bov) — Lions (pk) vs Bears and Dolphins (+9) @ Patriots — Risking 2.4 units to win 2
The mismatch between the Lions’ offense and the Bears’ defense is too much for Chicago to overcome. The Bears’ defense is 32nd in DVOA while the Lions’ offense is 6th, and is especially dominant at home. Detroit gets back on track here and stays alive with a win over Chicago.
All Teddy Bridgewater does is cover. Bridgewater is barely a step down from Tua and will be able to put up a respectable amount of points with the help of Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle. The Patriots’ offense is a limited group incapable of pulling away from opposing teams. Miami is the better and more talented team, I love them to stay within nine on the road in this spot.
Jets (-1.5) @ Seahawks — Risking 1.1 units to win 1
New York is a different team with the White Lotus under center. The cancer that is Zach Wilson has been removed once again for a Jets team that suddenly has a real shot at the playoffs with a win in Seattle. The Seahawks have serious issues in the interior of the offensive-line, an area that the Jets’ defense can exploit better than anyone. New York will generate consistent pressure to limit Geno while Mike White makes enough plays to win on the other side.
Giants (-5.5) vs. Colts — Risking 1.72 units to win 1.5
An already atrocious Colts’ offense is completely inept with Nick Foles calling the shots. Indy’s o-line is a safety hazard at the moment and will have Giants’ DC Wink Martindale salivating at the chance to blitz Foles. The Giants are home and can clinch the playoffs with a win. I think they do just that with a convincing win over the Colts.
49ers (-9.5) @ Raiders — Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5
Las Vegas punted on their slim playoff hopes and all but ended the Derek Carr-era this week by announcing Jarrett Stidham as the new QB. Carr’s effectiveness as a player is certainly inconsistent, but he was absolutely a well-liked leader inside that locker room. This is a situation where I do believe there will be a negative impact that is shown on the field against a dominant San Francisco team that is playing for the two-seed. I think this one could get very ugly and I’m not scared to lay the points in this spot.
Week 17 PrizePicks
Last week: (2-3)
Season record: (43-37) 54%
Aaron Rodgers MORE than 230.5 passing yards
The Packers are back from the dead and are a Washington loss away from controlling their own playoff destiny. Green Bay is home this weekend against the Vikings and that lucrative pass-funnel defense. I see both offenses having success leading to a 250-yard game from Rodgers.
Adam Thielen LESS than 43.5 receiving yards
Going back to the well here with Thielen who caught just one pass last week. Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson saw 32 targets against the Giants, which was a whopping 66% of the total targets. Thielen lacks the explosiveness to hit this number with one or two catches, he needs the volume and that volume isn’t there right now.
Allen Lazard MORE than 47.5 receiving yards
Lazard is still a trusted target of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers could be without Christian Watson this weekend. The Vikings allow easy completions and I expect Rodgers and Lazard to take the free yards often in this matchup.
Baker Mayfield MORE than 0.5 interceptions
The Chargers have been playing better defense than anyone over the past month. LA is healthy and Brandon Staley is in a rhythm with his personnel usage and game planning. The Chargers project to have a lead in this game and I expect Baker to fall into one of Staley’s traps at some point in the afternoon.
NFL Week 17 DFS Plays
Every week I will list my favorite DraftKings plays at each position in each price tier. These are strong tournament plays in my eyes and the bolded players are the guys I also like for cash games (50/50s and double ups).
Kirk Cousins ($6,400)
Jared Goff ($5,600)
Mike White ($5,400)
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000)
Leonard Fournette ($5,600)
Tyler Allgeier ($5,300)
Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,200)
Zonovan Knight ($5,100)
Justin Jefferson ($9,500)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800)
Chris Godwin ($6,800)
Garrett Wilson ($5,500)
Allen Lazard ($5,400)
Drake London ($4,900)
DJ Chark ($4,300)
T.J. Hockenson ($5,400)
Cole Kmet ($4,500)
Evan Engram ($4,400)
Tyler Conklin ($2,900)
Good luck with your NFL Week 17 picks. Play responsibly and be sure to check out all the great NFL content at Apollo. Follow @ApolloTexans and @AaronLittleOB on Twitter for more.
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