We came pretty close to a sweep of the board last week. Unlike the Yankees, Vegas did have enough pride to snatch a win from us, but a winning week is a winning week. Time to turn some momentum into a heater!
Week 8 Bets
Last week: +0.9 units
Season record: -11.81 units
*lines via FanDuel unless stated otherwise
Panthers (+4) at Falcons – Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5
I had the Panthers and Falcons 30th and 31st in my power rankings this week. Which makes it that much funnier when considering that the winner of this game will be in first place in the NFC South. Carolina’s defense has been showing signs of life lately, especially against the run. The Falcons do not want to throw the ball under any circumstance as we saw last week, and I don’t think Atlanta runs all over Carolina. P.J. Walker and D.J. Moore showed signs of life last week and the Falcons’ defense is abysmal as expected. Give me the Panthers to stay within 4 on the road.
Cardinals (+3.5) at Vikings – Risking 1.1 units to win 1
Cardinals TT OVER 22.5 – Risking 1.16 units to win 1
Two plays in the same game here. DeAndre Hopkins sparked the Cardinals’ offense last week ahead of this showdown with Minnesota. Hidden behind the Vikings’ 5-1 record is a defense that ranks 24th in DVOA. I’m not one to put American dollars in the hands of Kliff Kingsbury often, but with extra time to prepare and some eventual positive regression in the red zone, I think the Cardinals put up points in the dome against the Vikings. This feels like a chaotic game with plenty of points that ends with a missed field goal. I’ll take the Cardinals and the 3.5.
Jets TT UNDER 19.5 – Risking 1.62 units to win 1
Not many running backs meant more to an offense than Breece Hall did to the Jets. He was the catalyst, the engine, and the gas pedal to an otherwise shaky unit. Hall is done for the year with a torn ACL and I don’t suspect Bill Belichick will feel bad for New York after the Pats were embarrassed by the Bears on Monday Night Football. New England’s defense is still top 10 in DVOA and this projects to be a slow-paced game. I don’t see Zach Wilson getting to 20 in this one.
Browns (+3.5) vs Bengals – Risking 1.15 units to win 1
This feels like a nice spot for the home underdog in primetime. The weakness of the Browns is the run defense and pounding the rock is not a strength of the Bengals. This will also be Cincinnati’s first game of the year without Ja’Marr Chase due to a hip injury. I’m expecting a huge effort from a desperate Cleveland team against a division rival at home, give me the points.
Week 8 PrizePicks
Last week: (3-1)
Season record: (16-20) 44%
Kyler Murray MORE than 18.5 fantasy points
This line is higher on other platforms so we are getting good value here. I expect a back and forth game and that’s the type of game in which Kyler thrives. All the signs point to a good Kyler game, indoors, great matchup, extra rest, Hopkins is back… he should hit this number.
DeAndre Hopkins MORE than 70.5 receiving yards
It’s not a great feeling being this in on the Cardinals’ offense, but I really believe there is value in this matchup. Hopkins saw 14 targets in a game controlled by the Cardinals. I think he sees 15+ targets in a fun matchup with Minnesota.
Najee Harris LESS than 47.5 rushing yards
The projected game script and the matchup really favor this play. The Steelers are in Philly to take on the Eagles, who are fresh off of a BYE. The Eagles will be well prepared and should jump out to early lead, forcing Kenny Pickett to put the ball in the air. The Steelers’ run game has been hard to watch all year and I don’t think it gets better on the road in a matchup with Philly.
Kenneth Walker III MORE than 80.5 rushing yards
This is a significant discount off of other books so jump on this one quick because it’s likely going to move. Walker is receiving a workhorse role and draws a great matchup vs the Giants in what should be a game filled with high testosterone runs up the middle.
Chris Olave MORE than 62.5 receiving yards
It appears that Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will be sidelined yet again, leaving Olave to lead the way in the passing game. Olave has been a target monster this year and is back home in a dome against a bottom-three secondary in the Las Vegas Raiders. This line should be closer to 80 than 60.
Tua MORE than 16 fantasy points
The matchup vs the Lions speaks for itself. Amon-Ra St. Brown seems like he will be ready to play and I think the Lions are able to keep pace seeing that this game is in Detroit. Tua should fly past this number in a game with a total of 51.5 points.
Week 8 DFS Plays
Every week I will list my favorite DraftKings plays at each position in each price tier. These are strong tournament plays in my eyes and the bolded players are the guys I also like for cash games (50/50s and double ups).
Kyler Murray ($7,500)
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,200)
Kirk Cousins ($6,100)
Jared Goff ($5,500)
Sam Ehlinger ($4,000)
Christian McCaffrey ($8,700)
Derrick Henry ($8,400)
Saquon Barkley ($8,100)
Josh Jacobs ($7,500)
Alvin Kamara ($7,100)
Kenneth Walker III ($6,500)
Tony Pollard ($6,100) *if Zeke is out
Raheem Mostert ($5,900)
Cooper Kupp ($9,600)
Tyreek Hill ($8,500)
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900)
Jaylen Waddle ($6,700)
Chris Olave ($6,000)
George Pickens ($4,700)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,700)
Van Jefferson ($3,000)
T.J. Hockenson ($4,900)
Mike Gesicki ($3,800)
Irv Smith Jr. ($3,500)
Austin Hooper ($2,800)
Noah Fant ($2,800)
Good luck with your NFL Week 8 picks! Play responsibly and be sure to check out all the great NFL content at Apollo and enjoy the week. Follow @ApolloTexans and @AaronLittleOB on Twitter for more.
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