This is by far the best slate of games in the NFL this year. There are exciting matchups with playoff implications, great storylines, and of course, narratives. The heater ended last week so it’s time to start a fresh one with the best plays of Week 13.
Last week: -4.47 units
Season record: -5.55 units
*lines via FanDuel unless stated otherwise
Two-team 6-point teaser — Ravens (-2.5) vs Broncos and Seahawks (-1.5) @ Rams (-134 on FanDuel) — Risking 2.66 units to win 2
Denver threw the towel in weeks ago and the growing frustration among the players and coaching staff isn’t going to help anything when it comes to play on the field. Baltimore could struggle to score here but it won’t matter against this historically bad Broncos offense.
The Rams will be without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald, and Allen Robinson in this game against the Seahawks who must win to stay in the playoff race. The Seahawks are better, they need the game more, they are healthier, and will have more fans there, despite the game being in LA.
Steelers (-1.5) @ Falcons — Risking 1.05 units to win 1
Pittsburgh’s defense is healthy and is starting to play like a Mike Tomlin-led defense usually plays. Kenny Pickett is starting to come into his own and the Falcons secondary will have a tough time dealing with George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. The Steelers are playing good football right now and I like them in this spot on the road.
Saints @ Bucs UNDER 40.5 points — Risking 1.15 units to win 1
Games involving the Saints have gone over 40.5 just once in the last five weeks. On Monday night the Saints will face a Bucs team that is improving on defense while getting worse on offense. The Bucs will be without Tristan Wirfs in this game, a massive loss considering Wirfs is one of the best tackles in all of football. Dennis Allen and the Saints’ defense has given Brady trouble over the years and this current version of Tampa’s offense won’t change that narrative. This should be a punt-fest on Monday night.
Raiders (-1) vs Chargers — Risking 1.08 units to win 1
Despite the records, the Raiders are better than the Chargers per DVOA this season. The Raiders are coming in feeling good after back-to-back OT wins and will now look to avenge the Week 1 loss to LA. The Chargers look like they will be without Corey Linsley, Trey Pipkins, and Mike Williams in this game. That trio being unavailable spells doom for the Chargers’ offense on the road against Maxx Crosby. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers defense has just been bad all year and doesn’t have answers for Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams right now. The Raiders win this one at home and deliver a big blow to the Bolts’ playoff hopes.
Week 13 PrizePicks
Last week: (2-2)
Season record: (30-30) 50%
Mike White MORE than 238.5 passing yards
Minnesota is 27th against the pass and got lit up by Mac Jones last time we saw them. Mike White showed what he is capable of last week, and will get a chance to do so again in a game that the Jets will look to put the ball in the air often. I love this spot for the White Lotus.
Patrick Mahomes MORE than 306.5 passing yards
KC has been passing the ball relentlessly this year and Mahomes has shot way over this number in almost every game this season. While the Bengals’ defense is really good, the Chiefs offense is better and this game could easily turn into a shootout. JuJu is back healthy and Travis Kelce is ready to go. Mahomes will have some revenge on his mind after how his season ended last year and will fly past this number.
Josh Jacobs MORE than 90.5 rushing yards
What else really needs to be said about the Chargers’ run defense ever since Brandon Staley has taken over? Staley is going to let Jacobs run for 150 and Jacobs is going to do it.
Christian Kirk MORE than 60.5 receiving yards
Playing against the Lions at Ford Field in Detroit is a power-up mushroom for wide receivers. Despite Zay Jones getting a lot of targets lately, Kirk is still heavily involved and in a great spot for carve the Lions’ secondary.
Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE than 74.5 receiving yards
The Jags are 30th against the pass, per DVOA, and have been especially bad against opposing slot wide receivers. Enter ARSB, one of the best and most-targeted slot wideouts in the league. I love the idea of pairing Kirk and ARSB in a slip for what should be a high-scoring game in the Motor City.
NFL Week 13 DFS Plays
Every week I will list my favorite DraftKings plays at each position in each price tier. These are strong tournament plays in my eyes and the bolded players are the guys I also like for cash games (50/50s and double ups).
Patrick Mahomes ($8,300)
Joe Burrow ($6,900)
Trevor Lawrence ($5,900)
Derek Carr ($5,600)
Mike White ($5,400)
Jared Goff ($5,300)
Austin Ekeler ($8,500)
Josh Jacobs ($7,900)
Kenneth Walker III ($7,000)
Aaron Jones ($6,900)
Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,400)
David Montgomery ($6,200)
Jaylen Warren ($4,900) *If Najee is out
Zonovan Knight ($4,600) *If Carter is out
Davante Adams ($8,700)
A.J. Brown (REVENGE) ($7,800)
Tee Higgins ($7,200)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100)
Keenan Allen ($6,500)
Christian Kirk ($6,300)
Garrett Wilson ($5,300)
Christian Watson ($5,200)
George Pickens ($5,100)
Zay Jones ($4,900)
Nico Collins ($4,200)
Sky Moore ($3,100)
Travis Kelce ($7,900)
Pat Freiermuth ($4,300)
Foster Moreau ($3,600)
Hayden Hurst ($3,500)
Jordan Akins ($2,900)
Harrison Bryant ($2,700)